Mining Probability
Calculator

Solo mining has the same expected value as pool mining — statistically, every hash you compute earns the same whether you're solo or pooled. The difference is variance. Pool mining gives you small, predictable daily payouts. Solo mining gives you nothing for months or years, then one day you win 3.125 BTC all at once. If you enjoy the lottery-style thrill and understand you may never win, solo mining with a Bitaxe is a uniquely satisfying way to participate in Bitcoin's security while keeping your hardware fully sovereign. LottoAxe OS is built exactly for this use case.

More hashrate always improves your odds linearly — doubling your TH/s doubles your probability per block. The Bitaxe Ultra 1366 at ~1.2 TH/s gives you roughly 1-in-4 million odds per block. A NerdQAxe++ at ~8 TH/s gives you ~1-in-600,000 odds. If you're stacking multiple devices, run them all pointed at solo.ckpool.org with LottoAxe OS on each device. Every TH/s counts, and there's no practical upper limit to how many devices you can run.

Bitcoin's difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks (~2 weeks) to keep block times at 10 minutes on average. When the network hashrate rises, difficulty rises proportionally, and your probability per block falls. The numbers shown in this calculator update in real time using the current difficulty. Historically, difficulty has trended upward as more miners join the network — but there are also periods where it drops. Your absolute hashrate stays the same; your relative share of the network shrinks as the network grows.

When your Bitaxe or NerdQAxe finds a valid block solution while connected to solo.ckpool.org, the pool broadcasts it to the Bitcoin network and pays the full block reward directly to your configured wallet address — minus a tiny pool fee (typically 2%). The current block reward is 3.125 BTC (post-halving). If you're running LottoAxe OS v2.6.3+, the win is detected and verified automatically — your device reports it in real time and it appears on the Winners Hall of Fame within minutes. Then join our Discord — we'll make some noise.